Machiavelli
The Prince
25
How
Much Fortune Can Do It
is not unknown to me how many have been and are of opinion that worldly
events are so governed by fortune and by God, that men cannot by their
prudence change them, and that on the contrary there is no remedy
whatever, and for this they may judge it to be useless to toil much about
them, but let things be ruled by chance. This opinion has been more held
in our day, from the great changes that have been seen, and are daily
seen, beyond every human conjecture. When I think about them, at times I
am partly inclined to share this opinion. Nevertheless, that our free will
may not be altogether extinguished, I think it may be true that fortune is
the ruler of half our actions, but that she allows the other half or
thereabouts to be governed by us. I would compare her to an impetuous
river that, when turbulent, inundates the plains, casts down trees and
buildings, removes earth from this side and places it on the other; every
one flees before it, and everything yields to its fury without being able
to oppose it; and yet though it is of such a kind, still when it is quiet,
men can make provisions against it by dikes and banks, so that when it
rises it will either go into a canal or its rush will not be so wild and
dangerous. So it is with fortune, which shows her power where no measures
have been taken to resist her, and directs her fury where she knows that
no dikes or barriers have been made to hold her. And if you regard Italy,
which has been the seat of these changes, and which has given the impulse
to them, you will see her to be a country without dikes or banks of any
kind. If she had been protected by proper measures, like Germany, Spain,
and France, this inundation would not have caused the great changes that
it has, or would not have happened at all. This
must suffice as regards opposition to fortune in general. But limiting
myself more to particular cases, I would point out how one sees a certain
prince today fortunate and tomorrow ruined, without seeing that he has
changed in character or otherwise. I believe this arises in the first
place from the causes that we have already discussed at length; that is to
say, because the prince who bases himself entirely on fortune is ruined
when fortune changes. I also believe that he is happy whose mode of
procedure accords with the needs of the times, and similarly he is
unfortunate whose mode of procedure is opposed to the times. For one sees
that men in those things which lead them to the aim that each one has in
view, namely, glory and riches, proceed in various ways; one with
circumspection, another with impetuosity, one by violence, another by
cunning, one with patience, another with the reverse; and each by these
diverse ways may arrive at his aim. One sees also two cautious men, one of
whom succeeds in his designs, and the other not, and in the same way two
men succeed equally by different methods, one being cautious, the other
impetuous, which arises only from the nature of the times, which does or
does not conform to their method of procedure. From this it results, as I
have said, that two men, acting differently, attain the same effect, and
of two others acting in the same way, one attains his goal and not the
other. On this depend also the changes in prosperity, for if it happens
that time and circumstances are favourable to one who acts with caution
and prudence he will be successful, but if time and circumstances change
he will be ruined, because he does not change his mode of procedure. No
man is found so prudent as to be able to adapt himself to this, either
because he cannot deviate from that to which his nature disposes him, or
else because having always prospered by walking in one path, he cannot
persuade himself that it is well to leave it; and therefore the cautious
man, when it is time to act suddenly, does not know how to do so and is
consequently ruined; for if one could change one’s nature with time and
circumstances, fortune would never change. Pope
Julius II acted impetuously in everything he did and found the times and
conditions so in conformity with that mode of procedure, that he always
obtained a good result. Consider the first war that he made against
Bologna while Messer Giovanni Bentivogli was still living. The Venetians
were not pleased with it, neither was the King of Spain, France was
conferring with him over the enterprise, notwithstanding which, owing to
his fierce and impetuous disposition, he engaged personally in the
expedition. This move caused both Spain and the Venetians to halt and
hesitate, the latter through fear, the former through the desire to
recover the entire kingdom of Naples. On the other hand, he engaged with
him the Ring of France, because seeing him make this move and desiring his
friendship in order to put down the Venetians, that king judged that he
could not refuse him his troops without manifest injury. Thus Julius by
his impetuous move achieved what no other pontiff with the utmost human
prudence would have succeeded in doing, because, if he had waited till all
arrangements had been made and everything settled before leaving Rome, as
any other pontiff would have done, it would never have succeeded. For the
king of France would have found a thousand excuses, and the others would
have inspired him with a thousand fears. I will omit his other actions,
which were all of this kind and which all succeeded well, and the
shortness of his life did not suffer him to experience the contrary, for
had times followed in which it was necessary to act with caution, his ruin
would have resulted, for he would never have deviated from these methods
to which his nature disposed him. I
conclude then that fortune varying and men remaining fixed in their ways,
they are successful so long as these ways conform to circumstances, but
when they are opposed then they are unsuccessful. I certainly think that
it is better to be impetuous than cautious, for fortune is a woman, and it
is necessary, if you wish to master her, to conquer her by force; and it
can be seen that she lets herself be overcome by the bold rather than by
those who proceed coldly. And therefore, like a woman, she is always a
friend to the young, because they are less cautious, fiercer, and master
her with greater audacity.
in Human Affairs and How It May Be Opposed